ReleaseWire Connect

BMI View: The period 2011-16 is forecast to witness the proliferation of government initiatives supporting the growth of Switzerland's generic medicines market, which will increasingly attract prominent international players in the field, as well as prompt local companies to get more involved in the segment. According to data published by Swissmedic, Sandoz Pharmaceuticals, Novartis's generic medicines arm, has 556 preparations locally approved, while Teva has 345 preparations locally approved. However, the implementation of further price controls on the already low-value medicines sector means that drugmakers will find it difficult to maintain suitable levels of sales and profits.

BMI View: We anticipate that Mexico's construction industry will continue to make a steady recovery from the recession which took hold in 2008. While there remain weaknesses in the market, the outlook is more stable than many others in the region, with private investment expected to grow in light of the new PPP law. Over the medium term, the promise of a second National Infrastructure Plan, which will look to tap alternative sources of financing, is underlying our annual average construction industry value growth forecast of 4.3% between 2012 and 2016.

In this quarter's update on Ghana's telecoms market, we have incorporated Q112 data from the National Communications Authority (NCA) and the latest operational and financial data published by some of the country's major telecoms service providers. We also analyse key industry-specific and macroeconomic developments with significant implications for competition dynamics in the telecoms market and our fiveyear forecast, through to 2016, for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors.

Oman continues to develop itself into a regional powerhouse for the shipping and transhipment of dry bulk goods such as iron ore. To this end a new port is being constructed at Duqm and a new cargo terminal at Salalah. The new Duqm port will also boast a new oil refinery. Further port developments include the announcement that all cargo operations are to be moved from the Muscat port of Sultan Qaboos to Sohar by the end of 2012.

BMI View: As an indication of the government's increased focused on the agriculture industry, the Department of Agriculture's budget for 2012 has been increased significantly. The PHP48.7bn (US$1.1mn) is more than 60% higher than the year before.Most of the funds will go into developing and improving rural infrastructure as well as improving on farming infrastructure such as farm-to-market roads and host-harvest activities. BMI believes that this will pose upside risks to production estimates especially for key crops such as rice and also, livestock.

Zambia's mining sector is set to continue the recovery seen over the last decade. The country had declining copper output throughout the 1990s, but a mixture of low taxes, privatisation and elevated copper prices has seen a substantial boost to investment and output. We expect the value of the mining sector to reach US$993mn by 2016, from US$868mn in 2011, marking an annual average growth rate of 3%.

The Bahrain Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Bahrain's economic outlook of the ongoing political crisis.

The Egypt Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Egypt's economic outlook of a collapse in fixed investment and exports that is continuing to weigh heavily on the headline GDP growth figure.

BMI View: Activity in Hong Kong's construction sector has surprised on the upside, despite the general decline in appetite for residential construction and the weakness of the Chinese economy. The government's plan to provide more land for housing appears to have worked, with real estate transactions and residential building construction activity reaching record highs. Combined with the implementation of several large-scale transport infrastructure projects, construction activity in Hong Kong looks set to be more robust than initially anticipated. As a result, we have significantly revised up our 2012 forecasts, with construction real growth of 7.1% anticipated for 2012 (from a previous forecast of 2.3%).

Vending experienced severe pressure from stricter regulations regarding the sale of tobacco products through vending. Since early 2008, different cantons started limiting access to cigarette vending machines. The machines must be placed at a location visible to sales staff so that they can be monitored. Payment must be made using tokens available at the cash desk. However, thanks to an increasingly mobile population and the trend for on-the-go consumption, vending managed to control the...